2-7 Triple Draw Odds
Let’s understand the Deuce to Seven Triple Draw odds by looking at a simple example. Let’s say you wish to draw one card to 2 3 4 and 7. What do you think are the odds of you making a winning hand? ‘At the outset it may appear’ that you’ve got a sure-shot winner on hand as any of the four 5s can complete the winner, while any of the four 6s will provide you with the next-best hand. In case you get an 8, you’d still have a respectable hand, which is most likely to hold up against reasonable competition.
On the other hand, if all three draws are left, the chances of you hitting either of those cards is 3 (number of draws) x 12 (number of cards that are live), divided by 47 (cards that you haven’t seen); so, 36 / 47 (actual number would be different since it’ll be 46 instead of 47 for the second draw and 45 for the third). The chances of you receiving any of the needed cards would depend on how aggressively you play prior to the first draw. Ideally, you must raise and re-raise during the first betting round, to put as many people out of play. In case you get this hand post the first row, the odds would be around 24/46, still good enough to continue playing.
We mentioned in the earlier para that ‘at the outset it may appear.’ Why we used it is because it’s quite unlikely that the cards you require are still live. You should keep in mind that unlike as in case of high card games, almost every player needs the same kind of cards in Deuce to Seven Triple Draw poker. Hence, your actual odds are affected by two important factors:
– The number of players remaining in the hand and
– The number of cards these players draw
For instance, in case of the one-card draw we talked about above, you go into the first draw with three more players still in the game. Couple of them draw two cards each while the third draws only one.
How many of your needed cards do you think are still live? At majority of times, a player on two-card draw is most likely to have three cards to seven, whereas on one-card draws its normally three cards to eight or seven. Most of the active players would have deuces in their hands as it’s the most in-demand card in this game.
Let’s assume that both two-card draws consist of deuces, but one-card doesn’t. In case the two-card draws have 2 3 6 and 2 5 7, while the one-card draw has 8 5 4 3, you’ve already lost four of the twelve outs you had. With that, your chances of creating a winning hand become (3 x 8) / 36 (presuming you’re aware of all 10 cards) or 2/3. Although this may still be a favourable situation, it isn’t nearly as good as earlier.
Another important aspect you must keep in mind while playing Deuce to Seven Triple Draw poker is that a made jack-high hand is any day better than any draw, with one draw remaining. Hence, it always makes sense to stand pat if there is just one opponent who hasn’t drawn more than one card, and you have jack-high or a better pat hand. You’re also in position to indulge in some bluffing, followed by aggressive betting, hoping that the other player had paired or missed.
Please keep in mind that the odds of creating a winning hand deplete with every successive draw. Hence, you must normally fold a two-card draw which doesn’t get better after the first draw, and your opponent places a bet.